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<Research>M Stanley Upgrades BYD COMPANY (01211.HK) to Overweight, Lifts TP to $438
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Amid trade tensions, global economic weakness and rapid AI development, BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)’s quality, innovation speed and scale could transform cyclical downturn into structural upswing, Morgan Stanley stated.

The broker upgraded BYD COMPANY from Equal-weight to Overweight, raising the target price from HKD307 to HKD438. The grounds are: BYD is assumed to contribute 30%+ global EV growth in 2025, with a 10-12% CAGR in sales volume over the next five years, hopefully rivaling Toyota’s sales by 2030; BYD’s ability to scale technological innovation, underpinned by a vast user base and supply chain dominance, is evidenced by media focus on its “God's Eye” ADAS and 1000kW supercharging system; based on Morgan Stanley’s uplifted forecasts, BYD’s 2025E P/E is 17x, with expectations of a re-rating to 24x (vs a two-year average of 17x); if adjusted to a peer-average 50% R&D capitalization rate (BYD’s is about 2%), its P/E would be 12x, making valuations attractive; BYD is highly likely to offer non-vehicle products and services (e.g., humanoid robots or robotics), with the transferability of BYD’s know-how in batteries and mechanical engineering too strong to overlook.

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The broker believed BYD could rebound once macro uncertainties settle, though this may take time. Its superior operational capabilities and scale may attract more passive equity fund inflows amid global rotation.
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