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<Research>UBS Anticipates HENDERSON LAND/ SHK PPT/ SINO LAND to Capitalize on Potential Tailwinds Brought by Policy Address to HK Property Mkt Transactions
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The Policy Address is set to be announced next Wednesday (17th). According to a report from UBS, the market anticipates a further reduction in stamp duty on residential properties valued at HKD4-6 million, the establishment of the Property Purchase Capital Connect scheme, further easing of residential property investment qualifications under the Capital Investment Entrant Scheme, measures that attract more mainland visitors to Hong Kong, acceleration of Northern Metropolis development, and a timeline for the inclusion of REITs in the Stock Connect.

UBS considered the possibility of reducing the stamp duty on properties priced at HKD4-6 million from the current 1.5-2.25% to just HKD100 as moderate. If implemented, the annual tax revenue loss would be less than HKD2 billion, far below the annual land revenue of HKD14-70 billion from 2023-25. It is expected that the targeted stamp duty reduction could further stimulate market transactions, accelerate inventory clearance, and support land sales.

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In terms of stock selection, UBS anticipates that the new Policy Address will benefit developers such as HENDERSON LAND (00012.HK), SHK PPT (00016.HK), and SINO LAND (00083.HK), while more mainland tourists visiting Hong Kong will support regional mall owners, including WHARF REIC (01997.HK), HYSAN DEV (00014.HK) and SHK PPT.

In contrast, accelerated Northern Metropolis development may be negative for MTR CORPORATION (00066.HK) due to rising capital expenditure concerns but could expedite farmland recovery, which is positive for HENDERSON LAND.

The progress of REITs inclusion in the Stock Connect is expected to be positive for LINK REIT (00823.HK).

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