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<Research>JPM: POP MART's Labubu Search Popularity Ebbs from Jul's Peak, but Mini Labubu/ Twinkle Twinkle Drift Higher
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JPMorgan released a report on POP MART (09992.HK), of which bi-weekly brand popularity analysis showed: 1) Labubu's search popularity at the moment is only 60% of its July peak, but it is expected to rebound with the release of the “Labubu & Friends” animation and Labubu 4.0 version; 2) Since June, the search popularity of “Mini Labubu” has mushroomed, now comparable to Skullpanda and Dimoo; 3) Skullpanda's search index dropped 25% over the past two weeks, but remained 40% above that in May; 4) Crybaby's average search index in August remained flat compared to July; and 5) Interaction volume on Pop Mart's global social media official accounts increased 3% over the past two weeks. Labubu's search popularity on Google subsided from its July peak, but the popularity of Mini Labubu and Twinkle Twinkle drifted higher. The broker was optimistic about Pop Mart because 1) it has strong capabilities in discovering and monetizing IPs; 2) it has a diverse IP portfolio (Labubu is expected to account for 31% of the group's sales by 2027); 3) it is internationalizing (overseas sales are expected to account for 61% by 2027), making Pop Mart still the top pick in China's consumer universe. JPMorgan stated that Twinkle Twinkle is an emerging IP. Pop Mart launched Twinkle Twinkle in August 2024, achieving sales of RMB389 million in 1H25, way above the company's Crybaby (first-year sales of RMB71 million), Hirono (first-year RMB90 million), and Miniso Yoyo's first-year target sales of RMB40 million, highlighting Pop Mart's strong capabilities in discovering new IPs, monetization, platform operation, and cross-selling. The “Sweet Dream Forecast” series was launched in mid-August 2025 and swiftly sold out, with a 110% and 36% premium in the second-hand market in mainland China and overseas, respectively (as of September 5). JPMorgan maintained an Overweight rating on Pop Mart with a target price of HK$400. Pop Mart’s stock opened flat this morning (10th) and then extended its decline, bottoming at HK$268, down 7% at one point. It last posted at HK$273.2, down 5.2%, with a turnover of HK$5.3 billion, being the biggest decliner among blue chips. AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com |
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