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《績後》一文綜合大行於藥明康德(02359.HK)公布季績後最新目標價及觀點
藥明康德(02359.HK)今日(28日)高開8.02%,報136.1元後升幅擴大,曾高見148元一度彈高17.5%,現漲14.9%,造144.9元。摩根士丹利指藥明康德年首季收入和盈利分別按年增長29%和27%及持續經營收入按年增長39%,超出該行原預期15-20%,主要受小分子板塊推動(收入按年增長80%),領先指標顯示2026年全年收入具備持續性:基於...
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《績後》一文綜合大行於藥明康德(02359.HK)公布季績後最新目標價及觀點
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藥明康德(02359.HK)  -1.800 (-1.306%)    Short selling $271.63M; Ratio 32.945%   今日(28日)高開8.02%,報136.1元後升幅擴大,曾高見148元一度彈高17.5%,現漲14.9%,造144.9元。摩根士丹利指藥明康德年首季收入和盈利分別按年增長29%和27%及持續經營收入按年增長39%,超出該行原預期15-20%,主要受小分子板塊推動(收入按年增長80%),領先指標顯示2026年全年收入具備持續性:基於公司在年度業績中提供的2026年持續經營收入增長18-22%的最新指引,該行認為本次業績顯示其有很大可能超越該增長範圍。大摩料藥明康德未來30日股價將上升,料發生概率70%至80%,予目標價155港元,相當預測今年市盈率23倍,料2025年至2028年收入複合增長率15%。

藥明康德昨日(27日收市後公布截至今年3月底止首季業績,以中國企業會計準則計,營業額124.36億元人民幣(下同),按年升28.8%。純利近46.52億元,按年升26.7%;每股盈利1.59元,首季經調整非《國際財務報告準則》之母公司持有者之應佔淨溢利錄45.98億元按年升72%,收入及純利上升主因公司持續聚焦及加強CRDMO業務模式,營業收入持續增長,同時持續優化生產工藝和經營效率,以及臨床後期和商業化項目增長帶來的產能效率提升,提高整體的盈利能力。截至2026年3月末,公司持續經營業務在手訂單597.7億元,按年增長23.6%。

【季績優預期 股價彈成半】

高盛料期市場對藥明康德首季度業績將有正面反應,因為收入和盈利均超出高盛預期及市場共識,第一季度收入達124.4億元,按年增長 28.8%,若僅計持續經營業務則按年增長39.4%,主要由藥明化學及藥明測試帶動。經調整後的非IFRS盈利達46億元,按年增長72%,而該行及市場共識均為33億元;經調整後淨利潤率約37%(2025年首季度為約28%,2025年第四季度為約35%),顯示盈利能力在外匯逆風下仍具韌性,部分反映了剔除結構性低毛利率的CRO業務。整體而言,業績顯示藥明康德在核心業務上的盈利能力持續增強,市場反應預期偏向正面。該行維持買入(「確信買入」名單)評級及目標價149.7港元,此相當於未來12個月市盈率19倍。

里昂指,藥明康德首季業績超預期,亮點在於品質增長。期內持續經營業務收入按年增長39%,調整後非IFRS淨利潤按年大增72%,主因項目持續推進至後期臨床及商業化生產階段,訂單維持穩健下,進一步強化未來業績可見度,認為藥明康德為內地CRO或CRDMO領域首選企業,該行予其目標價149.3港元,評級「確信跑贏大市」。里昂料藥明康德2026年至2028年純利預測各為170.17億、195.34億及216.2億元﹐料2026年至2028年每股盈利預測按年各升22.6%、14.4%及9.7%,料2026年至2028年股本回報率各為19.3%、18.3%及17%。

---------------------------------------------

下表列出5間券商對藥明康德(02359.HK)  -1.800 (-1.306%)    Short selling $271.63M; Ratio 32.945%   投資評級及目標價:

券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
野村│買入│157.07元
摩根士丹利│增持│155元
摩根大通│150元
高盛│買入(「確信買入」名單)│149.7元
里昂│確信跑贏大市│149.3元

券商│觀點
野村│首季業績強勁,相當出色季度業績
摩根士丹利│因上調盈利預測及業績指引,預計股價未來30天內將上漲
摩根大通│第一季業績全面超預期及利潤率擴大
高盛│營運效率提升令首季營收和盈利均遠勝預期,面對外滙逆風保持強勁盈利能力
里昂│首季業績超預期及訂單維持穩健,進一步強化未來業績可見度
(ta/w)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-04-30 16:25.)

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