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《大行》摩通:友邦(01299.HK)內地訪客懸念已反映 焦點轉向增長
摩根大通發表研究報告指出,友邦保險(01299.HK)股價在過去兩周大幅波動,下跌7.5%(同期恒指下跌2.2%),主要受到市場對跨境監管收緊的憂慮所拖累 。該行認為,雖然內地訪客(MCV)相關風險可能會維持一段時間並帶來不明朗因素,但目前已基本反映在股價中。近期股價回落觸發了投資者對風險回報的重新評估,目前該股交易在2027年預測市賬率(P/EV)的1.1...
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《大行》摩通:友邦(01299.HK)內地訪客懸念已反映 焦點轉向增長
Recommend
25
Positive
32
Negative
25
 
 

摩根大通發表研究報告指出,友邦保險(01299.HK)  -1.300 (-1.699%)    Short selling $138.17M; Ratio 15.061%   股價在過去兩周大幅波動,下跌7.5%(同期恒指下跌2.2%),主要受到市場對跨境監管收緊的憂慮所拖累 。該行認為,雖然內地訪客(MCV)相關風險可能會維持一段時間並帶來不明朗因素,但目前已基本反映在股價中。近期股價回落觸發了投資者對風險回報的重新評估,目前該股交易在2027年預測市賬率(P/EV)的1.1倍,接近歷史低位,反映市場對其未來增長所賦予的價值有限,看法顯得過於保守。

摩根大通表示,市場焦點不再是內地訪客風險是否存在,而是市場是否過度低估了友邦更廣泛的增長與現金生成能力。由於內地訪客業務僅佔集團新業務價值的21%,其餘佔比近80%的非內地訪客業務表現大致仍處於正軌。

該行預計,在多元化市場佈局及亞洲主要人壽保險市場強勁需求的支撐下,非內地訪客業務將實現雙位數的財務增長。此外,印度已成為集團重要的長期增長引擎,旗下Tata AIA在2025年的新壽險銷售(APE)已超過10億美元;按友邦持股49%計算,其規模已可媲美香港內地訪客的市場機遇。

該行維持對友邦2026及2027財年的稅後營運利潤按年增速預測分別為10%及12%。雖然在夏季業績期前,該行在「增持」名單中相對更看好中國人壽(02628.HK)  -0.780 (-2.502%)    Short selling $112.03M; Ratio 17.944%   及中國平安(02318.HK)  -1.350 (-2.340%)    Short selling $253.53M; Ratio 20.394%   ,但友邦處於歷史谷底的估值應可限制其股價下行空間。摩根大通重申友邦保險「增持」評級,維持目標價為112港元。(ad/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-06-16 12:25.)

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