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《大行》大華繼顯:AI雲業務為中國互聯網首要細分市場 首選阿里(09988.HK)
大華繼顯發表報告表示,在中國大型語言模型(LLM)競爭加劇、代理型AI與AI超級應用崛起的背景下,「詞元」(Token)使用需求持續強勁增長,企業AI採用推動雲端定價能力提升,AI代理使用增加,以及消費者AI助手的擴展,該行依然將AI雲端視為中國互聯網板塊的首選細分市場,並將阿里-W(09988.HK)作為核心推薦。在未來六至十二個月,該行關注的AI敘事包括...
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《大行》大華繼顯:AI雲業務為中國互聯網首要細分市場 首選阿里(09988.HK)
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大華繼顯發表報告表示,在中國大型語言模型(LLM)競爭加劇、代理型AI與AI超級應用崛起的背景下,「詞元」(Token)使用需求持續強勁增長,企業AI採用推動雲端定價能力提升,AI代理使用增加,以及消費者AI助手的擴展,該行依然將AI雲端視為中國互聯網板塊的首選細分市場,並將阿里-W(09988.HK)  +6.700 (+4.993%)    Short selling $2.16B; Ratio 13.283%   作為核心推薦。

在未來六至十二個月,該行關注的AI敘事包括:(1)LLM競爭的演進、(2)雲端收入加速增長與利潤率擴張(伴隨價格上調)、(3)基於AI智能體的超級應用推出,以及(4)垂直領域領先LLM的商業化潛力。該行表示首選阿里,維持「買入」評級及目標價192元。

今年以來,隨著DeepSeek開源V4,以及阿里(通義千問)、騰訊(混元)、月之暗面(Kimi)、MiniMax-W(00100.HK)  +18.000 (+2.243%)    Short selling $29.27M; Ratio 2.898%   、ChatGPT 5.5、Anthropic Mythos等主要玩家的快速迭代,競爭顯著加劇。該行維持騰訊「買入」評級及目標價728元,重申百度-SW(09888.HK)  +5.700 (+4.331%)    Short selling $937.71M; Ratio 30.174%   「買入」評級及目標價170元。

產業結構與商業化路徑演變:獨立AI玩家在編碼與代理型應用場景的強勁表現,加上年度經常性收入(ARR)的快速增長,顯示領先模型的定價能力正在改善。同時,小米-W(01810.HK)  +0.300 (+0.973%)    Short selling $1.36B; Ratio 30.751%   等新進者透過蒸餾技術與開源架構降低門檻、縮小性能差距,引發市場對行業碎片化/整合以及API/「詞元」模式長期盈利能力的擔憂。作為回應,主要平台已調整策略:阿里重組「通義千問」,使其與雲端/晶片堆疊協同,並加強代理型與編碼能力;騰訊則加速內部重組、人才留用,以及代理型產品(包括微信整合)的推出,以縮小差距。

該行指市場對AI資本支出回報率的擔憂升高,中國科技巨頭在2026年加大投資;然而,該行認為中國超大規模雲端服務商具備更大靈活性,資本支出強度約為營運現金流的60%,相較美國同業的約90%更低,且淨現金狀況良好。這支持持續投資(阿里:至2027財年資本支出1,800億人民幣;騰訊2026年資本支出1,000億人民幣)。因此,該行預期今年將更嚴控如即時零售等虧損業務,以支持雲端持續超過40%的增長。

對於百度、阿里及騰訊的影響方面,阿里雲的「百煉」平台反映了這一趨勢,2026年第一季度「詞元」消耗量按年增長約六倍。作為回應,主要雲端供應商已開始上調AI相關定價。阿里雲部分GPU實例價格上調幅度高達34%,百度AI雲部分服務價格上漲5%至30%,騰訊雲則提高了混元模型的定價。該行認為這些舉措屬於需求驅動,反映了代幣使用加速與算力供應緊張。更重要的是,這標誌著行業從通縮式競爭轉向更理性的定價環境,商業化能見度正在改善。

大華繼顯指,騰訊在短期利潤率可能因AI投資而被稀釋,但憑藉強勁的核心現金流、即將到來的模型升級,以及代理型功能在其生態系統中的整合,騰訊在長期增長方面具備良好定位。該行看到AI應用採用與試驗的上行空間,並預測2026年阿里雲、百度雲與騰訊雲的收入增長分別為40%、36%和22%。(wl/da)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-05-07 16:25.)

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