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《預測》券商料阿里(09988.HK)上財季經調整淨利潤跌逾六成 聚焦AI應用、投資及分拆「平頭哥」指引
阿里巴巴-W(09988.HK)將於下周三(13日)公布截至今年3月底止的2026財年第四財季業績。受即時配送虧損及千問模型推廣導致其他業務部分虧損、電商業務部份商家合作項目抵減收入影響,本網綜合5間券商料阿里巴巴2026財年第四財季非公認會計準則淨利潤介乎79.78億至110.43億人民幣,較2025財年四財季非公認會計準則淨利潤98.47億人民幣,按年下...
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《預測》券商料阿里(09988.HK)上財季經調整淨利潤跌逾六成 聚焦AI應用、投資及分拆「平頭哥」指引
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阿里巴巴-W(09988.HK)  -1.800 (-1.278%)    Short selling $980.60M; Ratio 24.410%   將於下周三(13日)公布截至今年3月底止的2026財年第四財季業績。受即時配送虧損及千問模型推廣導致其他業務部分虧損、電商業務部份商家合作項目抵減收入影響,本網綜合5間券商料阿里巴巴2026財年第四財季非公認會計準則淨利潤介乎79.78億至110.43億人民幣,較2025財年四財季非公認會計準則淨利潤98.47億人民幣,按年下跌63%至73.3%,中位數為102.82億人民幣,按年跌65.6%。

綜合9間券商預測,阿里巴巴2026財年第四財季經調整EBITA料介乎36.68億至59.8億元人民幣,對比去年同季326.16億元人民幣,按年下跌81.7至88.9%,中位數為55.03億元人民幣,按年跌83.1%。本網綜合15間券商預測,阿里巴巴2026財年第四財季收入料介乎2,369.65億至2,550.27億元人民幣,比去年同期2,364.56億元人民幣,按年增加0.2%至7.9%。中位數為2,453.13億元人民幣,按年增加3.7%。

市場焦點將落在阿里巴巴旗下淘天集團的展望,特別是潛在的利潤率壓力,以及公司即時配送策略中虧損收窄的速度。在雲計算與人工智能方面,投資者將關注阿里雲的收入增速與資本開支擴張,重點在於GPU供應情況,以及公司如何落實其AI全棧佈局的戰略。考慮到阿里在人工智能領域的積極投入,瑞銀預測本財年虧損仍將維持在約700億元人民幣的高位(市場同業預估約300億元),同時市場亦期待公司就潛在分拆晶片業務「平頭哥」上市提供最新指引。

【即時配送虧損按季收窄 其他業務虧損料按季翻倍】

瑞銀預測阿里的2026財年第四財季非公認會計準則淨利潤79.78億人民幣按年下滑73.3%(按季跌52.3%),估計收入2,369.65億人民幣按年升0.2%(按季跌16.8%),料中國電商業務收入1,210.36億人民幣按年升6.1%,其中客戶服務及佣金收入717.88億人民幣按年升1%,而即時零售業務收入177.58億人民幣按年升40%。該行料阿里上財季經調整EBITA按年跌82%至59.24億元人民幣,中國電商集團方面,預計上季淘天毛交易總額按年增長4%至5%,較對上季度按年增長1%改善,考慮到季度引入商戶補貼,預計季度客戶管理收入按年增長1%扣除補貼影響的按年增長應保持在6%至7%的增長軌道。預計該部門季度EBITA為264.56億元人民幣(按年跌32.9%),即時配送季度虧損約150億元人民幣(市場同業料虧損180億人民幣)。雲業務方面,預計收入按年增長40%,較對上季度按年增長36%加快,由持續強勁的外部需求驅動,部門EBITA率料穩定在9%。

摩根士丹利預測,阿里季度非公認會計準則淨利潤110.34億人民幣按年下滑63%,經調整EBITA按年跌86%至45億元人民幣,收入按年升2%至2,412億元人民幣。該行預測阿里季度客戶管理收入按可比口徑按年增長7%,基於1月和2月的支出顯著改善,表現勝於對上季度的1%。但會計處理變更將導致對關鍵商戶補貼進行收入抵減,或導致報告的客戶管理收入增長為1%。該行預計阿里核心EBITA在扣除即時配送下按年基本持平,勝於對上季度的按年跌7%。該行預測阿里季度即時配送虧損180億人民幣,全財年共計虧損860億元人民幣,管理層目標為現財年即時配送虧損減半。其他所有業務虧損料按季翻倍至200億元人民幣,增加虧損主要來自春節期間千問推廣活動,該行預計與千問模型訓練相關費用將隨著詞元使用量激增而上升,目前預計2027財年旗下其他所有業務虧損700億元人民幣。另一方面,詞元使用量強勁激增推動雲業務增長,預計季度按年增長達40%以上,現財年將進一步加速至45%。

野村預測,阿里季度經調整EBITA按年跌84%至53億元人民幣,收入按年升6%至2,494億元人民幣。該行指,阿里上季提高頂級商家獲取平台激勵的門檻,要求承諾一定廣告支出,確保激勵流向增長前景最高的商家,或推動貨幣化率提升並改善中國電商業務EBITA率。基於阿里上季起把其頂級商家激勵記錄為客戶管理服務抵減項,以符合美國通用會計準則,估計季度客戶管理收入在可比較基礎上按年增長7%,按修訂會計處理則按年增長1%。估計不含即時配送的中國電商業務EBITA為417億人民幣,表現勝於對上季度的按年跌9%。該行料阿里季度即時配送虧損180億人民幣,較對上季度210億人民幣收窄。該行亦指,阿里加大對千問的投資,尤其在春節期間,或導致季度其他所有業務部門虧損200億人民幣。該行估計,基於千問大語言模型訓練和推理成本,以及推廣面向消費者千問應用的營銷費用,該部門的虧損或從上財年估計340億元人民幣,擴至現財年570億元人民幣。
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本網綜合5間券商料阿里巴巴2026財年第四財季非公認會計準則淨利潤介乎79.78億至110.43億人民幣,較2025財年四財季非公認會計準則淨利潤98.47億人民幣,按年下跌63%至73.3%,中位數為102.82億人民幣,按年跌65.6%。

券商│2026財年第四財季非公認會計準則淨利潤(人民幣)│按年變幅
大和│110.43億元│-63%
中金│110.34億元│-63%
大摩│102.82億元│-65.6%
里昂│98.87億元│-66.9%
瑞銀│79.78億元│-73.3%
按阿里2025財年第四財季非公認會計準則淨利潤298.47億人民幣
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綜合9間券商預測,阿里巴巴2026財年第四財季經調整EBITA料介乎36.68億至59.8億元人民幣,對比去年同季326.16億元人民幣,按年下跌81.7至88.9%,中位數為55.03億元人民幣,按年跌83.1%。

券商│2026財年第四財季經調整EBITA(人民幣)│按年變幅
中金│59.8億元│-81.7%
瑞銀│59.24億元│-81.8%
華泰証券│57.77億元│-82.3%
建銀國際│56.04億元│-82.8%
滙豐環球研究│55.03億元│-83.1%
野村│53.29億元│-83.7%
摩根士丹利│45.08億元│-86.2%
富瑞│38億元│-88.3%
里昂│36.68億元│-88.8%
按阿里2025財年第四財季經調整EBITA錄326.16億元人民幣計算
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綜合15間券商預測,阿里巴巴2026財年第四財季收入料介乎2,369.65億至2,550.27億元人民幣,比去年同期2,364.56億元人民幣,按年增加0.2%至7.9%。中位數為2,453.13億元人民幣,按年增加3.7%。

券商│2026財年第四財季收入(人民幣)│按年變幅
海通國際│2,550.27億元│+7.9%
野村│2,494.05億元│+5.5%
中金│2,485.45億元│+5.1%
廣發証券│2,480.72億元│+4.9%
中銀國際│2,477.94億元│+4.8%
大和│2,477.25億元│+4.8%
華泰証券│2,462.55億元│+4.1%
滙豐環球研究│2,453.13億元│+3.7%
申萬宏源│2,434億元│+2.9%
建銀國際│2,416.91億元│+2.2%
巴克萊│2,414.56億元│+2.1%
摩根士丹利│2,411.55億元│+2.0%
里昂│2,410.7億元│+2.0%
富瑞│2,410億元│+1.9%
瑞銀│2,369.65億元│+0.2%
按阿里2025財年第四財季收入2,364.54億元人民幣計算
(fc/w)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-05-08 12:25.)

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